Thu, Oct 24, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 315 | 216 | 01 | 544 |
| TBL | 14 | 27 | 212 | 12 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28TBLMatt CarlePPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Richard Panik · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:24TBLNate ThompsonSHAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 9:00CHIBryan BickellAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:36CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:21TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:53CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 1:33CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 11:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 17:31TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 18:11CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 1:16TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:49CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:53TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 0:33TBLRyan Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:10CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:16TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 10:42TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40CHIMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:42TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:08CHIMichal Handzus: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews7:39
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Kane – Pirri – Saad2:13
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Kane5:44
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad5:38
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:13
xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 22–8goals 4–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:29
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Leddy8:08
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos3:56
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie3:00
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:24
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Purcell – Johnson – Palat7:38
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Sustr8:38
xG 0.31–0.31 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Salo – Hedman16:32
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Carle – Gudas13:56
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 7–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).