Fri, Oct 25, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 010 | 37 | 425 |
| PIT | 114 | 120 | 18 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 13:25PITJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:59PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:46NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Thomas Hickey, Radek Martinek · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 13:02PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Joe Vitale, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 13:55NYIPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Radek Martinek · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 18:20NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:07NYIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:19PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:22NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16NYIMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:28NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:21NYIMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Clutterbuck – Nelson7:08
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Tavares2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey8:47
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares12:02
xG 0.21–0.73 (23%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Donovan10:31
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic20:34
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Martinek – Hickey12:29
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:06
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Vitale2:33
xG 0.02–0.01 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Glass – Sutter – Megna6:55
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Malkin10:56
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Orpik4:45
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin12:46
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta8:23
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).