Fri, Oct 25, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 110 | 27 | 321 |
| FLA | 118 | 016 | 011 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Erik Gudbranson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 13:32BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 12:42BUFSteve OttGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:13BUFCody HodgsonENAssists: Cody McCormick · Snap, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:58BUFNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:55FLABrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:32FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:32BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:56BUFMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ott – Foligno – Grigorenko5:07
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Hodgson – Flynn4:29
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Stafford – Grigorenko3:28
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Stafford – Hodgson3:41
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Zadorov2:00
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McBain – Pysyk2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain2:09
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Versteeg – Barkov12:47
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:02
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bergenheim – Winchester6:36
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias10:32
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilroy – Gudbranson11:08
xG 1.19–0.15 (89%)attempts 23–4goals 1–2
- Campbell – Kulikov18:22
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Weaver – Gilbert12:57
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).