Fri, Oct 25, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 16 | 05 | 13 | 321 |
| STL | 05 | 17 | 18 | 04 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:11VANChris HigginsAssists: Brad Richardson, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 9:34VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 19:53STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 1:38STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 4:45VANRyan KeslerPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:27STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:27VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:21STLRyan Reaves: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:18STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:18VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:03VANZack Kassian: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:26STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:45STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- OT 4:45VANDaniel Sedin: Misconduct10 min
- OT 4:45STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:45VANDaniel Sedin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSestito – Kassian – Welsh4:28
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Santorelli – Kassian3:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler15:35
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Higgins – Richardson – Santorelli6:58
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Garrison8:54
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev15:19
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton14:05
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Schwartz9:32
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Sobotka – Reaves5:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie15:14
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Roy – Paajarvi – Tarasenko9:24
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Polak15:50
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk16:31
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:03
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).