Fri, Oct 25, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 16 | 116 | 230 |
| COL | 218 | 18 | 18 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30COLErik JohnsonAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Tanguay · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:33COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 0:12CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:11COLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 0:36COLMatt DuchenePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 2:40CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:28CARRyan Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:41CARRadek Dvorak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:12COLJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:45CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:25COLPatrick Bordeleau: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Staal – Bowman7:02
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty8:09
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Gerbe – Nash3:33
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Bowman – Lindholm4:21
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk2:22
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gleason – Murphy13:09
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Sekera – Murphy3:14
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog14:18
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – Cliche4:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene11:03
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon10:44
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Benoit13:12
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Hejda – Johnson15:40
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Guenin – Wilson14:00
xG 0.56–0.73 (44%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).