Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 016 | 07 | 138 |
| TOR | 113 | 04 | 313 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:33TORDave BollandSHAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 1:26TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:05TORPhil KesselPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 19:18TORDave BollandENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:15TORPaul Ranger: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:23PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:59TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:59PITJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:26PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:51TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:43TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:43PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:55TORDave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:14PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – Kunitz – Crosby2:03
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kobasew – Vitale2:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Glass – Sutter6:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:52
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin13:23
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Letang – Maatta8:22
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang3:40
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – McClement – Ashton9:00
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond13:55
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri11:44
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Bodie – McLaren – Smith2:40
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Rielly8:59
xG 0.51–0.29 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson16:03
xG 0.18–0.66 (22%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner15:03
xG 0.20–1.12 (15%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).