Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 311 | 012 | 29 | 532 |
| NYI | 115 | 15 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 5:30PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Brayden Schenn, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 10:16NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Thomas Hickey, John Tavares · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:13PHIVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 10:30NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Peter Regin · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 8:53PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Claude Giroux, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 18:28PHIMatt ReadENAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:10NYIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:43NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:43PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22PHIMichael Raffl: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:22NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:26PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P2 9:21NYIMichael Grabner: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:10PHIZac Rinaldo: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05NYIRadek Martinek: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:25PHINicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Giroux – Raffl8:05
xG 1.11–0.13 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier11:06
xG 0.93–0.39 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Voracek – Schenn13:16
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:17
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gustafsson12:11
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Streit – Schenn12:34
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann15:10
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares10:58
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner6:14
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas4:36
xG 0.03–0.52 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey10:48
xG 0.26–1.33 (16%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Martinek – Hickey8:59
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Martinek – Donovan4:08
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:20
xG 0.60–0.92 (40%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).