Sat, Oct 26, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 212 | 25 | 525 |
| CHI | 011 | 111 | 214 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 1:03MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Marco Scandella, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 13:46CHIBryan BickellAssists: Nick Leddy, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:42MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 9:18MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 12:51CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 15:39MINJustin FontaineAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nate Prosser · Snap, 0.20 xG5–2
- P3 19:30CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Brandon Bollig, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:34MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:34CHIMarian Hossa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:17MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:15CHIAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
- P2 3:42MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:22MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:23CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:30CHIMarcus Kruger: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:57CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04MINZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14MINMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:12MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter6:59
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise2:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak7:57
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fontaine9:52
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser9:49
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Suter – Stoner2:04
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Stoner – Prosser2:16
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Morin – Shaw7:32
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews6:00
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger3:02
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mills – Pirri – Bollig3:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy10:41
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson12:00
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:02
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).