Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 6, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 117 | 24 | 39 | 630 |
| NSH | 08 | 08 | 17 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:34STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:36STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 0:52NSHNick SpalingSHAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 4:37STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 7:48STLDerek RoyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 12:58STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: David Backes, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.07 xG6–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:20NSHColin Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:27NSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:27STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:04STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:24NSHPatric Hornqvist: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:52STLChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:52NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:02NSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:57NSHPaul Gaustad: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:30NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:48NSHRyan Ellis: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Sobotka – Tarasenko2:56
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Paajarvi – Tarasenko2:45
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Reaves3:35
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Berglund – Schwartz2:00
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:21
xG 1.13–0.49 (70%)attempts 22–10goals 3–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:44
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Leopold – Polak13:06
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Smith – Bourque9:59
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson8:23
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Nystrom – Forsberg4:05
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Spaling4:38
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ekholm14:18
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Jones16:07
xG 0.79–0.88 (47%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Bartley – Ellis12:54
xG 0.41–0.89 (32%)attempts 7–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).