Mon, Oct 28, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 18 | 19 | 329 |
| CAR | 15 | 013 | 03 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25PITTanner GlassAssists: Jayson Megna, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 16:03CARNathan GerbePPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 16:24PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 7:11PITJayson MegnaAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brooks Orpik · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:28CARBrett Sutter: Boarding2 min
- P1 2:28CARBrett Sutter: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28PITJoe Vitale: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:28PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:07CARTim Gleason: Holding2 min
- P1 14:15PITBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:32PITCraig Adams: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:00CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:22PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32PITMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:41PITMatt D'Agostini: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:12CARNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – D'Agostini3:10
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna2:01
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:54
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:50
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin14:02
xG 1.25–0.62 (67%)attempts 22–16goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Letang14:32
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Maatta8:55
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Semin – Staal – Gerbe9:12
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Sutter – Westgarth – Bowman2:49
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal5:59
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Lindholm4:25
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Gleason9:48
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy2:56
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy8:50
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).