Thu, Oct 31, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 4, Phoenix Coyotes 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 311 | 08 | 119 | 02 | 0 | 440 |
| PHX | 05 | 26 | 210 | 04 | 1 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00NSHMatt HendricksAssists: David Legwand, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:12NSHEric NystromAssists: Patric Hornqvist, David Legwand · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 18:24NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Seth Jones, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 2:21PHXJordan SzwarzAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 9:51PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Keith Yandle, David Moss · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 4:15NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 6:16PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 8:17PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Shane Doan, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHX Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 2. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
- 5. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 6. NSH Mike Fisher stopped
- 7. PHX David Rundblad stopped
- 8. NSH Gabriel Bourque stopped
- 9. PHX Mikkel Boedker scored
- 10. NSH David Legwand stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:30PHXMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28PHXMikkel Boedker: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:18NSHMatt Cullen: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- OT 1:17NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Nystrom – Hornqvist13:03
xG 1.06–0.13 (89%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Fisher – Stalberg – Wilson15:11
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Spaling5:09
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Spaling – Smith4:08
xG 0.11–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi15:26
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Weber – Jones25:08
xG 1.55–1.09 (59%)attempts 27–27goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm10:14
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Ribeiro – Korpikoski12:28
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Szwarz5:01
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Moss – Boedker – Miele2:04
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer4:07
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:23
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 19–18goals 2–0
- Stone – Rundblad15:38
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle18:07
xG 0.30–1.15 (20%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).