Fri, Nov 1, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 016 | 111 | 112 | 239 |
| PIT | 19 | 39 | 09 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:10PITBrandon SutterAssists: Tanner Glass, Craig Adams · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 3:01PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:34PITJayson MegnaAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 9:56CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 19:14CBJRyan JohansenAssists: R.J. Umberger, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:05CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:37PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:23PITCraig Adams: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:12CBJJames Wisniewski: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
- P2 6:42PITDustin Jeffrey: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PITMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00CBJBlake Comeau: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:25CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P3 4:26CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:34PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Comeau – Johansen9:45
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Atkinson11:24
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov11:30
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Chaput6:38
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard14:33
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Murray9:26
xG 0.54–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski3:57
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:13
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Sutter9:49
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna6:38
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Maatta8:35
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Orpik – Martin12:34
xG 0.32–0.41 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Bortuzzo2:33
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).