Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 18 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 233 |
| WSH | 15 | 18 | 07 | 03 | 3 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:41WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Eric Fehr, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:20FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:56WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Michael Latta, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 17:22FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Mikhail Grabovski scored
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 3. WSH Brooks Laich scored
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:15WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:15WSHJoel Ward: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:21WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:21WSHMichael Latta: Elbowing2 min
- P1 16:21FLAMarcel Goc: Instigator2 min
- P1 16:21FLAMarcel Goc: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:21FLAMarcel Goc: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:25WSHMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:05WSHSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41FLAKrys Barch: Charging2 min
- P3 9:03WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 15:27WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:25WSHSteve Oleksy: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:29FLATomas Fleischmann: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Huberdeau – Barkov7:14
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Winchester – Bjugstad8:21
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias6:10
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Barch – Boyes5:39
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert12:16
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov11:48
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Gudbranson10:20
xG 0.21–0.50 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Fehr – Backstrom9:56
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski9:57
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson7:51
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt15:10
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:57
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Urbom – Oleksy10:40
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).