Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 05 | 05 | 021 |
| VAN | 118 | 212 | 117 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:07VANZack KassianAssists: Brad Richardson, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 5:05VANChris HigginsAssists: Chris Tanev, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 14:28VANDan HamhuisAssists: Brad Richardson, Darren Archibald · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–4
Penalties (24)
- P1 5:55TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:02VANChris Higgins: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:33TORPhil Kessel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33VANAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:53VANTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:53TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:42TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:42VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:32TORPaul Ranger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:22TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:22VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:17TORFrazer McLaren: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:17VANRyan Stanton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:03TORFrazer McLaren: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:03TORPhil Kessel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:31VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:25TORJoffrey Lupul: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:40TORPaul Ranger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:11TORJoffrey Lupul: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:29TORJames van Riemsdyk: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:29TORDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:29VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:08VANJeremy Welsh: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Clarkson – Raymond2:49
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orr – McLaren – Smith2:54
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Lupul – Kulemin4:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond4:01
xG 0.04–0.36 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson3:02
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner9:57
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson6:12
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Santorelli9:37
xG 0.85–0.18 (82%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler10:19
xG 0.81–0.15 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Kassian – Archibald7:38
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev8:03
xG 1.37–0.03 (98%)attempts 25–3goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Edler4:14
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Stanton7:56
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).