Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 08 | 114 | 130 |
| COL | 011 | 110 | 310 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:14COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Marc-Andre Cliche, Patrick Bordeleau · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 3:38MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–1
- P3 8:01COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 11:31COLRyan O'ReillyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 19:22COLPA ParenteauENAssists: Matt Duchene, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:56COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:56MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:58COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:58MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:08COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P1 19:36COLNate Guenin: Interference2 min
- P2 5:45MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:52MTLGeorge Parros: Holding2 min
- P3 3:03COLMax Talbot: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:56
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty3:22
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Bournival2:19
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk5:42
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Murray7:35
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban2:14
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Markov2:25
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog7:04
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon5:32
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon6:30
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche2:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Wilson17:25
xG 0.97–0.37 (73%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:25
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Sarich – Benoit15:51
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).