Tue, Nov 5, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 211 | 212 | 03 | 2 | 536 |
| SJS | 116 | 011 | 318 | 06 | 1 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Brad Stuart, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 2:36BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Jamie McBain, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:53BUFCody McCormickAssists: Drew Stafford, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:20BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 3:19SJSTyler KennedyAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:29SJSTomas HertlAssists: Scott Hannan, Joe Thornton · Wrap-around, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 7:28BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson · Slap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 16:14SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Martin Havlat, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.38 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 5. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 6. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 7. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 8. BUF Cody Hodgson scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:25BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:25SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:03BUFVille Leino: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:31SJSMike Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50SJSTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:50BUFJohan Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:18BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:05SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:49SJSTyler Kennedy: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28SJSScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:11BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Tropp – Foligno9:56
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Stafford – Larsson – Girgensons5:01
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons2:02
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Hodgson – Ennis12:18
xG 0.94–1.06 (47%)attempts 16–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Myers13:59
xG 0.90–1.04 (47%)attempts 13–22goals 2–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk16:12
xG 0.64–0.94 (40%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
- McBain – Ristolainen13:21
xG 0.61–1.06 (37%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Wingels – Hertl7:41
xG 0.77–0.08 (90%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto5:29
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Couture12:14
xG 1.07–0.99 (52%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Kennedy – Nieto5:38
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers11:56
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 1–2
- Boyle – Stuart14:30
xG 0.99–0.48 (68%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Hannan – Stuart2:24
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).