Thu, Nov 7, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 016 | 112 | 240 |
| TBL | 210 | 19 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:11EDMTaylor FedunAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 19:07TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 18:33TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 10:22EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:55TBLValtteri FilppulaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:58TBLOndrej Palat: Holding2 min
- P1 3:00EDMRyan Smyth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:16EDMPhilip Larsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:09TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:36TBLSami Salo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins4:52
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:20
xG 0.09–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall9:21
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Arcobello3:25
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Fedun10:08
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Smid – Larsen17:36
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry16:55
xG 0.68–0.80 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos15:51
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik4:11
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Connolly5:12
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat5:52
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Carle – Gudas13:19
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 3–0
- Brewer – Barberio11:45
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman16:43
xG 0.32–0.56 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).