Thu, Nov 7, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 39 | 117 | 08 | 434 |
| SJS | 26 | 05 | 013 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 4:28VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Darren Archibald, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 9:25VANMike SantorelliAssists: Chris Higgins, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–1
- P1 10:45SJSMike BrownAssists: James Sheppard, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P1 18:55VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 5:22VANZack KassianAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Stanton · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:16VANRyan Stanton: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:16SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:12VANBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23VANJason Garrison: Interference2 min
- P2 13:37SJSJason Demers: Kneeing2 min
- P3 3:45VANTom Sestito: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:08SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02SJSBrad Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:21SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:21VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Kesler14:02
xG 1.08–0.14 (88%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Santorelli10:41
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Richardson – Kassian – Archibald8:46
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Sestito – Dalpe – Welsh3:38
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev12:52
xG 1.08–0.12 (90%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Bieksa – Stanton10:23
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa3:30
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Couture – Nieto2:12
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sheppard3:24
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Desjardins – Sheppard4:53
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Brown – Desjardins2:37
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Stuart12:36
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Hannan – Stuart2:06
xG 0.03–0.30 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers9:44
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).