Sat, Nov 9, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 06 | 111 | 228 |
| OTT | 212 | 111 | 09 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 2:04OTTMika ZibanejadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 4:04FLANick BjugstadAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 5:52OTTClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 10:08FLAMarcel GocAssists: Matt Gilroy · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:47OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:15OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:15FLAScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:15FLAScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:57FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:09OTTCory Conacher: Holding2 min
- P3 0:12OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:12FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40OTTChris Phillips: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:06OTTClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:02OTTJared Cowen: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:30FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:36
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Upshall – Versteeg – Barkov10:18
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Kopecky – Goc11:29
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Barch – Bergenheim – Matthias4:55
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:40
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson14:21
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Weaver – Gilroy11:43
xG 0.45–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad9:46
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:06
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Kassian – Grant – Conacher2:34
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:32
xG 0.14–0.51 (22%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Wiercioch3:44
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch10:33
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen13:27
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).