Sat, Nov 9, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 110 | 06 | 01 | 3 | 330 |
| CAR | 111 | 110 | 05 | 03 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33MINJason PominvilleAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 4:53CARRyan MurphyAssists: Drayson Bowman, Justin Peters · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 7:14CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, Brett Bellemore · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 11:22MINJustin FontaineAssists: Marco Scandella, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 2. CAR Riley Nash stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. CAR Chris Terry scored
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:38MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:19CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:18CARAndrej Sekera: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:07CARAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
- P3 0:11MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:53MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:26
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter8:00
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell7:35
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle10:46
xG 0.30–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba4:40
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin16:46
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Prosser5:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal10:05
xG 0.88–0.46 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty13:22
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Terry – Nash7:17
xG 0.06–0.29 (16%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman8:53
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore14:21
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk17:02
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy11:33
xG 0.11–1.12 (9%)attempts 7–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).