Sat, Nov 9, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vancouver Canucks 1, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 19 | 04 | 126 |
| LAK | 211 | 310 | 011 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23LAKJordan NolanAssists: Linden Vey, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:09LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Mike Richards · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 8:52VANDan HamhuisAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:00LAKMike RichardsAssists: Dwight King, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 11:46LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 12:33LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Mike Richards, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:08LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P2 11:08VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:08LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:45VANDan Hamhuis: Clipping2 min
- P3 5:10VANTom Sestito: Charging2 min
- P3 12:38VANTom Sestito: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Santorelli8:09
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler9:38
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Sestito – Dalpe – Welsh3:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Archibald – Welsh4:40
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev17:01
xG 0.98–0.59 (63%)attempts 19–21goals 0–2
- Edler – Garrison9:48
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Stanton10:11
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar14:08
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Vey – Nolan5:30
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Frattin – Vey – Nolan2:39
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Toffoli12:00
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez13:52
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty13:13
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Doughty2:46
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).