Sun, Nov 10, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 112 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 434 |
| WPG | 015 | 317 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:04SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:20SJSTomas HertlAssists: Jason Demers, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 6:12WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Matt Halischuk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:53SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 8:38WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Grant Clitsome, Eric Tangradi · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 17:19WPGGrant ClitsomeAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:59SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 18:17WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 3. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 4. SJS Tommy Wingels stopped
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 6. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:09SJSScott Hannan: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:50WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:27WPGEvander Kane: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:21SJSScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:19WPGMatt Halischuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:05WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P3 11:49SJSJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:15WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Pavelski – Nieto7:32
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Wingels – Hertl9:55
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Brown – Desjardins – Sheppard3:56
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture10:09
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:34
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
- Hannan – Demers15:28
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Irwin13:10
xG 0.24–0.96 (20%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Setoguchi – Kane11:56
xG 0.83–0.40 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele5:43
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright3:50
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:25
xG 0.64–1.21 (35%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Ellerby10:31
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome13:44
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 3–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian18:30
xG 0.51–1.31 (28%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).