Sun, Nov 10, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 116 | 014 | 134 |
| COL | 112 | 116 | 29 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Cody McLeod, Marc-Andre Cliche · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:48WSHJoel WardAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:16COLNick HoldenGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 8:12COLPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:20COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:45WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:25WSHJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:52COLMax Talbot: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:02COLCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:06COLNathan MacKinnon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:55COLCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski10:25
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:35
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson5:02
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson9:27
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson11:00
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Green – Alzner2:04
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt15:31
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – McGinn – Landeskog10:03
xG 0.56–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon11:17
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche5:31
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Parenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene10:54
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson12:27
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Guenin – Holden11:18
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit15:59
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).