Tue, Nov 12, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Nashville Predators 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 011 | 112 | 133 |
| NYI | 216 | 19 | 08 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:30NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:23NYIPierre-Marc BouchardGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:07NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P3 14:30NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:57NSHRich Clune: Holding2 min
- P1 9:46NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:46NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:53NSHDavid Legwand: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:44NSHDavid Legwand: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:32NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:05NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:40NYIAaron Ness: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Regin won the faceoff against Legwand
- P1 20:00Legwand hit Regin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Spaling – Wilson10:07
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Cullen – Legwand – Hornqvist2:08
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Cullen – Beck – Smith3:42
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Beck2:12
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:54
xG 1.26–0.88 (59%)attempts 22–24goals 0–1
- Klein – Jones17:22
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Bartley – Ellis6:44
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson10:17
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- McDonald – Regin – Grabner8:55
xG 0.03–0.41 (8%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:41
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey7:56
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Donovan13:21
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Carkner – Ness10:43
xG 0.26–0.43 (37%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:11
xG 0.38–1.10 (26%)attempts 18–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).