Tue, Nov 12, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 210 | 211 | 531 |
| OTT | 010 | 08 | 06 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Sean Couturier · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:28PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:33PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 7:57PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.18 xG4–0
- P3 13:32PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:06PHIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:03OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:33OTTCory Conacher: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:59OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn10:32
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek13:00
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier12:45
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo6:44
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann10:30
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:29
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Streit – Schenn5:18
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kassian – Grant – Zibanejad4:41
xG 0.02–0.06 (21%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:18
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher11:38
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith12:06
xG 0.15–0.75 (16%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Wiercioch17:12
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:29
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Methot – Borowiecki14:16
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).