Tue, Nov 12, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 011 | 013 | 234 |
| FLA | 08 | 210 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:26ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Nick Bonino, Emerson Etem · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:28FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Brian Campbell, Krys Barch · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:38FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:29FLABrad BoyesGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:08ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:57FLAMike Weaver: Interference2 min
- P2 10:16FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:38ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:12ANABryan Allen: Holding2 min
- P3 15:33ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:40FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Winnik
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Penner – Perreault6:39
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Bonino – Etem4:25
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Rakell2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly3:52
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler3:05
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm9:23
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler5:48
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Boyes – Kopecky – Goc5:11
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Barkov2:47
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:29
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Versteeg – Barkov4:57
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov8:25
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Mottau – Gudbranson8:11
xG 0.06–0.22 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert9:44
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).