Thu, Nov 14, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 7, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 412 | 29 | 732 |
| CGY | 06 | 16 | 216 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27DALStephane RobidasAssists: Brenden Dillon, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:19DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 4:25DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 8:32DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 11:56DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Antoine Roussel, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.15 xG5–0
- P2 15:01CGYMatt StajanAssists: David Jones, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 0:30DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.25 xG6–1
- P3 4:46CGYDavid JonesPPAssists: Kris Russell, Sven Baertschi · Deflected, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 12:16CGYMatt StajanSHAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.43 xG6–3
- P3 16:21DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (10)
- P2 5:57DALAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:34CGYShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:42DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37CGYLee Stempniak: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:37DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:37DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:37CGYMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:06CGYSven Baertschi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:23CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:24
xG 1.30–0.19 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 4–0
- Morin – Roussel – Garbutt8:27
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Peverley10:06
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Chiasson – Eakin11:01
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski15:36
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Robidas – Dillon11:45
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Benn15:36
xG 0.29–0.96 (23%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- McGrattan – Jackman – Backlund7:45
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan11:28
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Galiardi9:57
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Colborne13:37
xG 0.59–1.03 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Smid2:17
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell16:38
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Smid13:18
xG 0.23–0.39 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).