Fri, Nov 15, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 06 | 03 | 118 |
| PIT | 210 | 215 | 08 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:36PITPascal DupuisAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:56PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 7:58PITKris LetangAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 18:37PITBrandon SutterAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:13NSHColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:17NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:07PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:42PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:48PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:13NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Smith2:33
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque9:34
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Cullen – Gaustad – Smith4:29
xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Fisher – Stalberg – Wilson7:40
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ekholm10:49
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Ellis – Jones3:35
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm4:04
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal6:59
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Sutter – Bennett8:07
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale5:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:07
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin15:31
xG 0.53–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Engelland – Letang4:47
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta8:57
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).