Fri, Nov 15, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 115 | 011 | 00 | 1 | 340 |
| CBJ | 210 | 06 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Nick Foligno, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 17:12CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Nikita Nikitin, David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 19:52MTLAlex GalchenyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 7:34MTLLars EllerPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. CBJ Artem Anisimov stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. CBJ Ryan Johansen stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:54MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:19MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:39CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34CBJJack Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:34MTLBrandon Prust: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:59CBJCam Atkinson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:26CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:26MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:53CBJNick Foligno: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 11:13MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Galchenyuk7:49
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Desharnais – White2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Bourque – Pacioretty4:14
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Bourque – Desharnais – Pacioretty7:15
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:35
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz12:54
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban3:21
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu9:47
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Chaput9:14
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Boll – Anisimov – Collins3:33
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Anisimov2:01
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Murray14:33
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard13:56
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson14:06
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).