Fri, Nov 15, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 09 | 212 | 224 |
| MIN | 210 | 05 | 15 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:38MINJason PominvilleAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 3:31FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:59FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:38MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:19FLABrad Boyes: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:01MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:47FLATom Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:09FLANick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P2 12:37MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Goc – Winchester9:53
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Boyes – Upshall – Barkov11:25
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau14:07
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Barch – Bergenheim – Matthias5:27
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:23
xG 0.82–0.14 (85%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Mottau – Gudbranson12:25
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle13:46
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter11:03
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell6:42
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:46
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Prosser10:54
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:47
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin19:21
xG 0.36–1.15 (24%)attempts 8–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).