Sun, Nov 17, 2013·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 15 | 010 | 124 |
| CHI | 19 | 18 | 310 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:34CHIBrandon PirriAssists: Patrick Kane, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 8:16SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:08CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 3:39CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Ben Smith, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–3
- P3 15:10CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brandon Saad, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–4
- P3 18:49CHIPatrick SharpUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:07SJSAndrew Desjardins: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:30CHIBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:44CHISheldon Brookbank: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Desjardins – Nieto8:37
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Kennedy – McCarthy6:32
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Marleau – Sheppard – Couture6:35
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Marleau – Pavelski – Kennedy2:42
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic17:32
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Braun15:41
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Hannan – Demers16:03
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Kane – Pirri10:36
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Sharp – Toews – Saad12:12
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig10:55
xG 0.09–0.80 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:16
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Leddy11:31
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook14:36
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).