Tue, Nov 19, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 18 | 19 | 431 |
| BUF | 16 | 09 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Ville Leino, Henrik Tallinder · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 1:09STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Chris Stewart, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:24STLVladimir TarasenkoPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 14:09STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Chris Stewart, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 6:10STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Ryan Reaves, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:59BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:39STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:30BUFTyler Ennis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24BUFSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36STLVladimir Tarasenko: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Leino won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie12:22
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart9:48
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:56
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi8:35
xG 0.08–0.44 (16%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk16:34
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:15
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
- Polak – Cole14:49
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – Stafford – Hodgson14:06
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis11:16
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Foligno – Flynn – Girgensons11:03
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- McCormick – Scott – Tropp4:26
xG 0.01–0.36 (4%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers13:17
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Pysyk3:21
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain14:13
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).