Tue, Nov 19, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 19 | 117 | 237 |
| TOR | 18 | 16 | 310 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22TORTrevor SmithAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 11:19TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 19:48NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 3:39TORMason RaymondGWGAssists: Jay McClement · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 12:52TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Trevor Smith, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 15:14NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 17:17TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Trevor Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 10:11NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:20TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:18TORJoffrey Lupul: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:48TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:48NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:54TORPaul Ranger: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:55NYIColin McDonald: Throwing equipment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck6:10
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – McDonald – Bailey14:18
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Nelson3:27
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Okposo – Tavares5:19
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Donovan14:04
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:53
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Hickey – Ness2:37
xG 0.25–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Raymond – Kulemin13:42
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Smithson – Orr – McLaren6:07
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Holland11:31
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Smith13:37
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:08
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Ranger – Rielly13:18
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Franson – Gardiner16:07
xG 0.13–0.98 (11%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).