Thu, Nov 21, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 313 | 16 | 428 |
| TOR | 111 | 07 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48TORPeter HollandAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:01NSHSeth JonesPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:14NSHMatt CullenAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:25NSHCraig SmithPPGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 4:32NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Cullen, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 15:28TORNazem KadriAssists: Mason Raymond, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:13TORNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P1 6:52NSHViktor Stalberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:25NSHKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:25TORMason Raymond: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:19TORJames van Riemsdyk: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson10:45
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Clune6:43
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Legwand – Stalberg – Bourque12:09
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith7:17
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:19
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Klein – Jones13:38
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bartley – Ellis6:42
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri5:49
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Raymond – Kulemin – Holland7:01
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Orr – Raymond – Kadri3:55
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Smithson – Orr – McClement2:41
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:37
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly12:20
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
- Franson – Gardiner15:15
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).