Thu, Nov 21, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 07 | 013 | 130 |
| PHI | 012 | 219 | 215 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:28BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Ville Leino, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–0
- P2 14:09PHIMatt ReadAssists: Steve Downie, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:49PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 9:58PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:49PHIScott HartnellENAssists: Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:37BUFHenrik Tallinder: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:10PHIVincent Lecavalier: Holding2 min
- P1 14:09BUFCody Hodgson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:28BUFCody McCormick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:29PHIMark Streit: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:27PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:45BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:32PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:54BUFVille Leino: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:12BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:52BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Scott – Leino3:05
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Ennis – Girgensons8:56
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Stafford – Adam – Grigorenko9:07
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Moulson – Foligno7:01
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – McNabb2:55
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber12:18
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Myers10:02
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Read – Couturier8:35
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn10:15
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo3:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:24
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:53
xG 1.01–0.14 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:06
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson8:05
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).