Thu, Nov 21, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 29 | 111 | 327 |
| DET | 116 | 113 | 218 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17DETGustav NyquistAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:37DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 5:49CARBrett BellemoreAssists: Radek Dvorak, Drayson Bowman · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:51CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:29DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–3
- P3 15:58DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:44CARAndrej SekeraSHAssists: Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:27CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:21DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 17:38DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 18:02DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:06DETNiklas Kronwall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:44CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:44CARTim Gleason: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Ruutu – Terry – Nash2:12
xG 0.02–0.01 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:35
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman8:27
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Tlusty – Terry – Nash3:04
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore11:30
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gleason – Bellemore2:59
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy3:24
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist11:26
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Miller – Andersson6:47
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Datsyuk9:52
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Tatar9:35
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith13:14
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson8:40
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Kindl7:00
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).