Thu, Nov 21, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 3, Dallas Stars 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 013 | 28 | 327 |
| DAL | 023 | 113 | 17 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27NYRRick NashPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 8:46DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Cody Eakin · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 1:18NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:55NYRJohn MooreGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 8:27DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Cody Eakin, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:51DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:02NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:39NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P2 7:05NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:04NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:08DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:36NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39DALSergei Gonchar: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Hagelin8:25
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett6:40
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:56
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Richards – Nash – Callahan12:20
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:29
xG 1.20–0.65 (65%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore11:35
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Staal – Stralman15:10
xG 0.36–0.87 (30%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Peverley – Roussel9:09
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:20
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Chiasson – Eakin9:55
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Garbutt7:43
xG 0.68–1.05 (39%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski16:06
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 22–16goals 1–1
- Robidas – Dillon15:07
xG 0.93–0.85 (52%)attempts 22–18goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Benn12:24
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).