Thu, Nov 21, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 012 | 113 | 137 |
| SJS | 218 | 19 | 29 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:03SJSBrad StuartGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 11:47SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 4:23SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Scott Hannan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 4:42SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 7:39TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:52TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P1 14:13SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:08TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Killorn – Brown9:47
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Filppula – Connolly4:03
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Purcell3:19
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Connolly4:19
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio15:51
xG 0.91–0.49 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Salo – Hedman14:04
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Carle – Gudas16:44
xG 0.31–1.08 (22%)attempts 23–22goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Wingels12:29
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 16–19goals 3–0
- Brown – Desjardins – Sheppard8:30
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Havlat – Pavelski – Kennedy13:02
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun13:41
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 15–19goals 4–0
- Hannan – Demers7:44
xG 0.29–0.22 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic14:46
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).