Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 2, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 117 | 110 | 234 |
| NSH | 05 | 07 | 05 | 017 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:13NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 7:45NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:31NSHSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:01NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:21NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:24NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:20NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:11NSHMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nash – Callahan11:35
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:19
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett8:12
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Hagelin7:34
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman16:36
xG 0.94–0.23 (81%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:31
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore10:01
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Fisher – Nystrom – Wilson7:04
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom5:03
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith8:15
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson2:32
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Ellis10:35
xG 0.28–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bartley – Jones3:17
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Jones12:46
xG 0.14–0.53 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).