Sun, Nov 24, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 014 | 010 | 136 |
| CAR | 011 | 314 | 112 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 3:10CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:09CARTuomo RuutuGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:03CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 17:37CAREric StaalENAssists: Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:55CARKevin Westgarth: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:26OTTChris Phillips: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:03OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:21CARBrett Bellemore: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:04OTTClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:04OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Grant10:01
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad8:46
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris10:10
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Turris2:11
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:38
xG 1.17–0.54 (68%)attempts 24–24goals 1–1
- Phillips – Wiercioch6:07
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Wiercioch4:02
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Gerbe10:11
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal10:50
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Skinner – Lindholm7:50
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Westgarth – Bowman7:45
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore17:44
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk15:54
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 25–13goals 2–0
- Harrison – Murphy12:33
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).