Mon, Nov 25, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 010 | 120 | 139 |
| FLA | 07 | 214 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35FLASean BergenheimAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Dylan Olsen · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 13:59FLASean BergenheimPPGWGAssists: Marcel Goc, Erik Gudbranson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 7:06PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 15:52FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Scottie Upshall, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:00FLAKrys Barch: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:00FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:00FLAKrys Barch: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:00PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:29FLAScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:06FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:23PHIClaude Giroux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:15PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:54FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:11
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn10:32
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:57
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:46
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn14:18
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson14:16
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Goc – Bergenheim11:31
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes3:23
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:01
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Barkov12:23
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson15:01
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Weaver – Kulikov10:09
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert19:07
xG 0.21–0.51 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).