Mon, Nov 25, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 25 | 110 | 527 |
| EDM | 06 | 18 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:06CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 1:28CHIJohnny OduyaAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brandon Bollig · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 5:49CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Jeremy Morin · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
- P2 8:08EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 18:02CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad · Deflected, 0.28 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:24CHIBen Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:31EDMBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:04CHINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P1 17:36EDMJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:10EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:03CHISheldon Brookbank: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:46EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Morin – Shaw8:00
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Saad11:22
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig9:30
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Handzus – Kane – Pirri9:09
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy12:34
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:31
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:20
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov10:40
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Perron11:35
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Acton5:34
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:31
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Potter7:41
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry13:08
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Belov14:56
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).