Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 05 | 29 | 221 |
| TBL | 014 | 211 | 210 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:15TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nate Thompson, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 12:16TBLOndrej PalatSHAssists: Victor Hedman, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 5:00TBLVictor HedmanPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 18:07PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:47PHIMark StreitAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:26TBLTyler JohnsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:04PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:46TBLVictor Hedman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:00PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:00TBLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:55TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:28PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:13PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:43PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:03PHISteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:03TBLKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42PHISteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P3 19:42TBLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn11:05
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Downie – Couturier – Raffl10:42
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo4:36
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:41
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Grossmann14:59
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:51
xG 0.25–0.27 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson12:35
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Panik – Palat9:03
xG 0.28–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Purcell – Killorn – Kucherov9:06
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Filppula – Brown13:18
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Palat2:23
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr13:18
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio9:07
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Salo – Aulie4:01
xG 0.09–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).