Wed, Nov 27, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 17 | 39 | 522 |
| FLA | 09 | 012 | 212 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 18:53NYRBrad RichardsUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 5:32NYRRick NashGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 12:28FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 16:17FLANick BjugstadUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:32NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Chris Kreider, John Moore · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:36NYRCarl HagelinENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:49NYRJustin Falk: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:48FLADylan Olsen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:55NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:06FLAScott Gomez: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:21FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Pouliot – Brassard11:16
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Hagelin12:18
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:16
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Moore – Boyle9:19
xG 0.16–0.79 (17%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman15:23
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Falk – Moore9:45
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh20:06
xG 0.51–1.33 (28%)attempts 15–26goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Upshall – Barkov12:10
xG 1.11–0.25 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:36
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes6:18
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Goc – Bergenheim12:32
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:38
xG 0.88–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:47
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov4:23
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).