Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 112 | 13 | 111 | 326 |
| MIN | 05 | 010 | 114 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Shane Doan, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:42PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Tim Kennedy, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 10:02MINDany HeatleyAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 19:37PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Martin Hanzal, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:58MINTorrey Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P1 15:42PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:42MINMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:21PHXMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:23PHXJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:15MINKyle Brodziak: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Chipchura – Brown7:47
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy12:51
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss11:02
xG 0.04–0.28 (13%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker10:28
xG 0.25–0.94 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morris – Schlemko16:58
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 6–17goals 2–0
- Yandle – Murphy12:50
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson19:26
xG 0.20–1.26 (14%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Niederreiter4:38
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Coyle7:29
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Coyle6:12
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Niederreiter3:09
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon11:13
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon3:55
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ballard – Suter7:29
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).