Fri, Nov 29, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 114 | 06 | 411 | 531 |
| CAR | 05 | 28 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:20NJDMark FayneAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:53CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy, Riley Nash · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:34CARJordan StaalAssists: Justin Faulk, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:43NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Damien Brunner, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 12:02NJDAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Eric Gelinas, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 13:52NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Jon Merrill, Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 16:31NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31NJDMarek Zidlicky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:55CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 5:58NJDSteve Bernier: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:58CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:23NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:21CARManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:30NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min
- P3 10:58CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Henrique – Brunner6:52
xG 0.95–0.08 (92%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bernier – Carter – Loktionov8:49
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ryder – Tedenby – Josefson4:22
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ryder – Loktionov – Brunner2:52
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Gelinas8:25
xG 1.17–0.14 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky4:11
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 2–0
- Fayne – Greene13:34
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNash – Skinner – Lindholm7:11
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Staal – Gerbe10:27
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman7:24
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal10:15
xG 0.06–0.95 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Murphy13:21
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Harrison – Faulk2:59
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Bellemore13:12
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).