Fri, Nov 29, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 08 | 211 | 227 |
| CBJ | 17 | 316 | 05 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:34CBJArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Matt Calvert, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 10:30CBJNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 17:06CBJJack SkilleAssists: Corey Tropp, Dalton Prout · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 10:36EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Denis Grebeshkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 15:39EDMDavid PerronPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:20CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P2 1:21EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:34EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:56EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min
- P2 4:17CBJMark Letestu: Holding2 min
- P2 10:10EDMJustin Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:10CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:28CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:29CBJJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:41EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:28CBJBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:49CBJJack Skille: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov7:44
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Perron3:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Joensuu – Arcobello3:41
xG 0.05–0.04 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:20
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov10:23
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry10:50
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Grebeshkov – Schultz11:56
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Foligno – Johansen – Jenner8:54
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Tropp – Chaput5:19
xG 0.06–0.12 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson6:56
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Letestu10:18
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nikitin – Prout12:26
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Murray11:52
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:17
xG 0.15–0.79 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).