Sat, Nov 30, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 26 | 27 | 19 | 522 |
| FLA | 015 | 19 | 016 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:17PITJoe VitaleGWGAssists: Jayson Megna, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 7:23PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Olli Maatta, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 17:53FLAScottie UpshallPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 18:22PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 6:10PITJussi JokinenAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:10PITJussi Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:11FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:58PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P2 16:41PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:33
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Megna6:56
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Vitale2:05
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal11:03
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland14:18
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Despres14:15
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta15:49
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 12–22goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau12:13
xG 0.66–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Gomez – Boyes – Matthias4:59
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Goc – Fleischmann – Winchester13:21
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov4:49
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov9:07
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert14:15
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:49
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).