Sat, Nov 30, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 316 | 06 | 214 | 536 |
| PHX | 08 | 217 | 09 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:18CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 11:04CHINiklas HjalmarssonGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 5:52PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P2 15:56PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 10:49CHIBrandon BolligAssists: Marcus Kruger, Ben Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 19:14CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:49PHXKyle Chipchura: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 1:14PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P1 15:50PHXJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:28CHIJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:50CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:09PHXMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:43PHXConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58CHIAndrew Shaw: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kruger – Bollig5:20
xG 0.44–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Pirri – Shaw3:39
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Handzus – Kane – Saad6:06
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews6:52
xG 0.20–0.81 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Seabrook7:50
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson9:55
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Leddy5:58
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker5:07
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy6:31
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura2:03
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss6:33
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Schlemko7:52
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson7:05
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Yandle – Murphy6:23
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).