Sun, Dec 1, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 110 | 011 | 330 |
| CAR | 04 | 217 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–0
- P1 15:48VANTom SestitoAssists: Jason Garrison, Zac Dalpe · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 0:39CARJordan StaalAssists: Ron Hainsey, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–1
- P2 0:49CARNathan GerbeAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P2 1:16VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:18CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 2:18CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:18VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:18VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:18CARDrayson Bowman: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:13CARMike Komisarek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:44VANDavid Booth: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:37VANDaniel Sedin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:10VANBrad Richardson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:15VANRyan Kesler: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:11VANRyan Stanton: Interference2 min
- P3 13:20CARRadek Dvorak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Hansen5:55
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Booth – Santorelli – Weise4:56
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Santorelli – Weise2:33
xG 0.01–0.02 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth2:35
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Garrison11:41
xG 1.13–0.11 (91%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Stanton10:39
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:04
xG 0.32–1.41 (18%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Staal – Bowman5:43
xG 0.88–0.06 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner2:59
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Tlusty3:32
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal3:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore13:46
xG 0.91–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk14:07
xG 0.84–0.80 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Komisarek – Murphy8:14
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).